US pork production forecasted to rise despite herd decline amid stronger productivity and exports

Despite a slight decrease in the US breeding herd, pork output is expected to increase in 2026 and 2027, driven by higher litter rates, heavier animals, and growing exports, even as prices face downward pressure.

Despite a persistent slide in the breeding herd, US pork output is still forecast to rise, helped by stronger productivity and heavier animals, according to the USDA.

The National Agricultural Statistics Service said the herd stood at 73.7 million head on 1 June, including 5.88 million breeding hogs, down slightly from a year earlier and from March. Even so, the average litter size reached 11.87 pigs, while producers reported plans to farrow 2.90 million sows in the June-to-August quarter and 2.89 million in the following quarter.

In its July outlook, the Economic Research Service said higher litter rates, better management, heavier weights and live-animal imports, mostly from Canada, should support growth in commercial pork production in 2026 and 2027. It expects third-quarter production of 6.8 billion pounds, up 2.2 per cent year on year, before 7.4 billion pounds in the fourth quarter.

Prices are under pressure. Live-equivalent hog values are forecast at $69 per cwt in the third quarter and $58 in the fourth, both well below 2025 levels.

Exports remain a crucial offset. Shipments reached 603 million pounds in May, though competition from Canada, Brazil and the EU has intensified, particularly in Mexico, the top destination. The USDA trimmed its second-quarter export forecast but lifted its third-quarter estimate, while still projecting record-setting growth over the longer term.

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