Rabobank warns EU meat import suspension could disrupt supply chains and raise prices

Rabobank highlights potential supply chain upheavals and price hikes following the EU’s suspension of Brazilian meat imports due to compliance concerns, with significant impacts on beef and chicken markets.

Rabobank has warned that the European Union’s move to suspend Brazilian meat imports from 3 September could unsettle supply chains and put fresh pressure on prices, particularly in beef and chicken.

The bank said Brazil is likely to struggle to prove full compliance with EU veterinary rules because it lacks a national system for tracking antimicrobial sales. Brussels has said livestock exported to the bloc must be raised without growth-promoting antimicrobials, and that compliance must be demonstrated across the animals’ full production cycle.

According to the European Commission, the restriction followed Brazil’s removal from the list of approved exporters in May, shortly after the EU-Mercosur trade agreement provisionally entered into force. Brazil’s ambassador to the EU has said Brasília was surprised by the decision and had sought talks to reverse it.

Rabobank said Brazil supplies about a quarter of the EU’s imported beef and poultry, making the disruption potentially significant. It expects frozen breast meat to be the most exposed poultry product, while foodservice and premium retail would feel the sharpest effects in beef. Alternative suppliers, including Ukraine, Thailand and China, are seen as unable to fill the gap fully.

The bank added that Argentina, Uruguay and Australia may increase shipments, but EU beef prices are likely to rise again. For Brazil, the challenge is how to reallocate volumes already under pressure from Chinese tariffs and quotas.