US Pork Volumes Hold Firm While Prices Slide, Leaving Producers Squeezed Between Output and Returns

USDA’s Economic Research Service expects 2026 US pork output to reach 27.9 billion pounds with exports up 2.9% to 7.2 billion pounds, yet cash hogs are trading near $91 per hundredweight against almost $108 a year earlier. The divergence leaves producers holding volume but losing value, with softer shipments to Mexico compounding the pressure as the sector moves into autumn.

The reversal is notable given where the year began. USDA opened 2026 forecasting strong domestic and export demand alongside production of 28.3 billion pounds, with broiler output expected to rise 1%. By April, supplies still looked tight — quarterly pork output stood at 2.3 billion pounds, the cutout at $98.06 per hundredweight, and imports of Canadian early-weaned pigs were running more than 18% higher year-on-year.

Supply fundamentals remain solid. NASS counted 73.7 million hogs and pigs on 1 June, including a breeding herd of 5.88 million, with 2.90 million summer farrowings planned. That stability has not translated into price support. The customary summer futures rally did not materialise, with the cutout averaging $96.45 in mid-June while carcass weights remained heavy — a combination that adds tonnage without adding value.

Profitability has held longer than the price trajectory suggests. April marked the 24th consecutive profitable month for the sector. But the reasons producers have not expanded are instructive: barn construction and operating costs, elevated sow mortality, and persistent animal health problems have all constrained appetite for growth, even through an extended profitable run.

With the cutout now running roughly 20% below last year, the sector faces autumn with sound supply, functioning export channels and materially thinner margins.